SINGAPORE: The People’s Action Party (PAP) swept 87 out of 97 seats at this year’s General Election, while opposition parties did not make new inroads into parliament.
The Workers’ Party (WP) stood its ground at Aljunied, Sengkang and Hougang, and put up close fights at Jalan Kayu and Tampines, retaining 10 seats and adding two more Non-Constituency Member of Parliament (NCMP) seats. This cements WP as the leading opposition party in Singapore.
As the dust settles from GE2025, it has become apparent that opposition parties fall into three tiers. WP is Tier 1, having demonstrated an ability to breach the 40 per cent vote share in the constituencies they contest. Tier 2 parties are the Progress Singapore Party (PSP) and Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) who can break past 30 per cent. Tier 3 parties are the rest, including Red Dot United (RDU) and the People’s Alliance for Reform (PAR).
For political survival, Tier 3 parties need to consider banding together to offer a unified message. Having contested 62 compared to 50 seats by Tier 1 and 2 parties, their courage and commitment are commendable. However, it will be more effective to have fewer parties doing more work together than many parties doing limited work on their own.
Moving up the tiers, both SDP and PSP have expressed disappointment in poorer-than-expected showing. SDP’s Dr Paul Tambyah's vote share dropped 7.7 percentage points in Bukit Panjang SMC. This loss may be a result of the PAP’s Liang Eng Hwa’s ground operations since GE2020. Mr Liang seized the incumbency advantage and worked the ground to swing votes in the PAP’s favour.
That makes Dr Chee Soon Juan’s performance extraordinary, winning nearly 47 per cent when he stood for the first time at Sembawang West SMC against incumbent Poh Li San. Dr Chee may be on a cusp of a breakthrough into parliament as NCMP or MP in the next GE.
The disappointment stung most for PSP at West Coast-Jurong West GRC, who cited redrawn boundaries as the key driver for its loss. Boundary changes are a “known unknown” in every election that could affect vote share either way.
It is curious why the A-team of Tan Cheng Bock, Leong Mun Wai and Hazel Poa did not secure more than 40 per cent of the vote. Could the Biden factor, where old age is a consideration, weigh on voters’ minds with regards to Mr Tan? Were voters dissuaded by Mr Leong’s belligerence in parliament?
While we unpack voter perceptions of the PSP, we cannot discount the PAP’s performance in West Coast-Jurong West GRC, and the “anchor minister effect” provided by National Development Minister Desmond Lee. His ministry’s recent HDB policy changes may have blunted criticisms in this regard by the PSP.
Much will be debated about the WP’s strategy. Were they too conservative by not contesting more wards, or sending more party stalwarts into new territory? I think not.
In turbulence, Aljunied GRC voters preferred the status quo where WP’s vote share has stabilised to nearly 60 per cent. By keeping the slate of candidates mostly unchanged, it also consolidated its hold on Sengkang GRC. The WP was rewarded with a 4 percentage point bump in Sengkang, suggesting that ground operations and hard work outweighed the Raeesah Khan saga.
It is unrealistic to win a GRC on a first try. WP seems to be playing the long game by fielding the best possible teams, without compromising Aljunied and Sengkang, to gauge baseline support in new playing fields. Now that they know, they can anchor and adjust going into the next GE.
What is remarkable is how the independent candidates performed in GE2025. Despite no party platform and machinery, Jeremy Tan punched above his weight in Mountbatten SMC to achieve the vote share of Tier 2 opposition parties.
Singapore voters may have appreciated independent candidates for their fresh policy proposals, backed by research. This augurs well for our maturing political landscape where Singaporeans are putting candidate above party.
More broadly, parties in the upper tiers leaned into foregrounding their policy ideas in manifestos, and airing them during rally speeches.
WP’s Andre Low who secured 48.5 per cent of votes in Jalan Kayu SMC spoke passionately about public housing policies. The SDP proffered their single-payer healthcare system across several rallies while the PSP emphasised changes to the Goods and Service Tax.
This suggests that maturing Singaporean electorate wants to hear about ideas, not just ideals, and the opposition parties who attempted that were rewarded.
Several observers have sounded the alarm that voter turnout in 2025 was the lowest since 1968 in terms of percentage. If spoilt votes are added, nearly 1 in 10 Singaporeans didn’t vote or spoilt their vote in 2025 (excluding voters in walkover constituencies) – a 50 per cent jump from 2020.
While some have attributed voter absences to the timing of GE2025 over a long weekend, when Singaporeans could have been travelling, it is worrying if it arises from a broader pattern of political disengagement. Could this be the new protest vote?
Previously, a protest vote was framed as a vote for the opposition. As our democracy matures, a protest vote seems to be shifting from an opposition vote to a non-or-spoilt vote. This is more insidious and chips away at our political exceptionalism.
Could this present a unique opportunity for opposition parties? Might it be easier to convince undecided, apathetic or disillusioned voters than convert PAP supporters? Regardless, this is a phenomenon that bears watching.
Issues do not resolve themselves through nine days of intensive airing. Though the majority has spoken, with roughly two-thirds of voters choosing the PAP, the remaining third who voted otherwise still need to feel heard.
Dr Reuben Ng is a Behavioural and Data Scientist at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.
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The Workers’ Party (WP) stood its ground at Aljunied, Sengkang and Hougang, and put up close fights at Jalan Kayu and Tampines, retaining 10 seats and adding two more Non-Constituency Member of Parliament (NCMP) seats. This cements WP as the leading opposition party in Singapore.
As the dust settles from GE2025, it has become apparent that opposition parties fall into three tiers. WP is Tier 1, having demonstrated an ability to breach the 40 per cent vote share in the constituencies they contest. Tier 2 parties are the Progress Singapore Party (PSP) and Singapore Democratic Party (SDP) who can break past 30 per cent. Tier 3 parties are the rest, including Red Dot United (RDU) and the People’s Alliance for Reform (PAR).
For political survival, Tier 3 parties need to consider banding together to offer a unified message. Having contested 62 compared to 50 seats by Tier 1 and 2 parties, their courage and commitment are commendable. However, it will be more effective to have fewer parties doing more work together than many parties doing limited work on their own.
LACKLUSTRE RESULTS FOR SDP AND PSP
Moving up the tiers, both SDP and PSP have expressed disappointment in poorer-than-expected showing. SDP’s Dr Paul Tambyah's vote share dropped 7.7 percentage points in Bukit Panjang SMC. This loss may be a result of the PAP’s Liang Eng Hwa’s ground operations since GE2020. Mr Liang seized the incumbency advantage and worked the ground to swing votes in the PAP’s favour.
That makes Dr Chee Soon Juan’s performance extraordinary, winning nearly 47 per cent when he stood for the first time at Sembawang West SMC against incumbent Poh Li San. Dr Chee may be on a cusp of a breakthrough into parliament as NCMP or MP in the next GE.
The disappointment stung most for PSP at West Coast-Jurong West GRC, who cited redrawn boundaries as the key driver for its loss. Boundary changes are a “known unknown” in every election that could affect vote share either way.
It is curious why the A-team of Tan Cheng Bock, Leong Mun Wai and Hazel Poa did not secure more than 40 per cent of the vote. Could the Biden factor, where old age is a consideration, weigh on voters’ minds with regards to Mr Tan? Were voters dissuaded by Mr Leong’s belligerence in parliament?
While we unpack voter perceptions of the PSP, we cannot discount the PAP’s performance in West Coast-Jurong West GRC, and the “anchor minister effect” provided by National Development Minister Desmond Lee. His ministry’s recent HDB policy changes may have blunted criticisms in this regard by the PSP.
Related:
WP PLAYS THE LONG GAME
Much will be debated about the WP’s strategy. Were they too conservative by not contesting more wards, or sending more party stalwarts into new territory? I think not.
In turbulence, Aljunied GRC voters preferred the status quo where WP’s vote share has stabilised to nearly 60 per cent. By keeping the slate of candidates mostly unchanged, it also consolidated its hold on Sengkang GRC. The WP was rewarded with a 4 percentage point bump in Sengkang, suggesting that ground operations and hard work outweighed the Raeesah Khan saga.
It is unrealistic to win a GRC on a first try. WP seems to be playing the long game by fielding the best possible teams, without compromising Aljunied and Sengkang, to gauge baseline support in new playing fields. Now that they know, they can anchor and adjust going into the next GE.
Related:
VOTERS WANT IDEAS, NOT JUST IDEALS
What is remarkable is how the independent candidates performed in GE2025. Despite no party platform and machinery, Jeremy Tan punched above his weight in Mountbatten SMC to achieve the vote share of Tier 2 opposition parties.
Singapore voters may have appreciated independent candidates for their fresh policy proposals, backed by research. This augurs well for our maturing political landscape where Singaporeans are putting candidate above party.
More broadly, parties in the upper tiers leaned into foregrounding their policy ideas in manifestos, and airing them during rally speeches.
WP’s Andre Low who secured 48.5 per cent of votes in Jalan Kayu SMC spoke passionately about public housing policies. The SDP proffered their single-payer healthcare system across several rallies while the PSP emphasised changes to the Goods and Service Tax.
This suggests that maturing Singaporean electorate wants to hear about ideas, not just ideals, and the opposition parties who attempted that were rewarded.
THE NEW PROTEST VOTE?
Several observers have sounded the alarm that voter turnout in 2025 was the lowest since 1968 in terms of percentage. If spoilt votes are added, nearly 1 in 10 Singaporeans didn’t vote or spoilt their vote in 2025 (excluding voters in walkover constituencies) – a 50 per cent jump from 2020.
While some have attributed voter absences to the timing of GE2025 over a long weekend, when Singaporeans could have been travelling, it is worrying if it arises from a broader pattern of political disengagement. Could this be the new protest vote?
Previously, a protest vote was framed as a vote for the opposition. As our democracy matures, a protest vote seems to be shifting from an opposition vote to a non-or-spoilt vote. This is more insidious and chips away at our political exceptionalism.
Could this present a unique opportunity for opposition parties? Might it be easier to convince undecided, apathetic or disillusioned voters than convert PAP supporters? Regardless, this is a phenomenon that bears watching.
Issues do not resolve themselves through nine days of intensive airing. Though the majority has spoken, with roughly two-thirds of voters choosing the PAP, the remaining third who voted otherwise still need to feel heard.
Dr Reuben Ng is a Behavioural and Data Scientist at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore.
Continue reading...