SINGAPORE: As the war in Iran deepens with little sign of resolution anytime soon, a question that small nations like Singapore increasingly face is what agency they have amid bigger powers acting on their own agendas.
The decision by the US and Israel to attack Iran on Feb 28 has sparked a conflict that threatens to engulf the Middle East and disrupt countries’ energy supplies.
As a small but influential player on the global stage, Singapore is often placed in an interesting position.
While not a major power able to dictate the direction of international geopolitics, Singapore’s leaders are often consulted for their views on global developments at fora ranging from the United Nations to the World Economic Forum and Munich Security Conference.
As a transport, technology and finance hub, Singapore’s policies and actions have had an outsized impact on the region and the world, and are keenly watched by investors and other states.
As the proverb goes, “When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.” Smaller players like Singapore often find themselves on the decision-making sidelines when major powers make moves against one another.
In recent years, we have seen wars break out in Europe and the Middle East. While the tensions in Gaza seem to have eased slightly after a ceasefire, the latest turmoil in Iran will ratchet up the temperature in that region again.
The impact on the proverbial “grass” has already been felt around the world. Oil and energy prices have surged, financial markets have tumbled amid increasing uncertainty, and the prognosis for global economic development in 2026 appears bleaker than it was prior to the conflict.
With a speedy end to the Iran war seemingly not a priority of Israel and the US, such global uncertainty looks set to persist in the near term at least.
This brings us to the question of what Singapore can do in such scenarios. The tension between being a small but influential country is brought into focus when conflicts emerge abroad.
In these situations, it may seem that the only option available to smaller nations is to issue carefully worded statements that express concern and call for the cessation of hostilities, respect for sovereignty and human life, and adherence to international law.
A recent exception was the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Along with its statements condemning the invasion, Singapore also imposed rare unilateral sanctions on Russia, targeting military exports, some Russian banks and financial transactions connected to Russia.
Last week, Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said Singapore endorses the statement made by the ASEAN foreign ministers on the latest situation in the Middle East.
The statement expressed “serious concern” at the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, and urged parties to respect international law, including the Charter of the United Nations.
Though this may seem to be another example of Singapore’s limited ability to influence international developments, the country faces unique circumstances.
As a multi-racial and multi-religious country that is open to information and influences from around the world, international conflicts often arouse different views among the domestic populace. On potentially contentious issues or developments, the government thus avoids taking a strong position that could result in animosity or unhappiness among local communities.
When it comes to foreign policy, Singapore’s long-held preference to maintain good relations among as many friends as possible means that excessively strong statements or official positions can mean the loss of strategic ambiguity, which can be invaluable when it comes to international diplomacy.
At the same time, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong argued that Singapore is not without agency in an increasingly complex and unpredictable global environment.
Speaking at the S Rajaratnam Lecture series organised by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Diplomatic Academy last year, Mr Wong said that, despite Singapore’s limitations as a small state, it cannot afford to be a passive bystander and should seek to shape its own destiny.
He said this can be done via three key thrusts: contributing actively to the stewardship of the global commons, championing deeper regional cohesion and integration, as well as strengthening its global network of partnerships.
While Singapore looks outward to achieve these aims, it must balance sensitivities at home and with partners abroad. As the world evolves away from a stable rules-based global order into one that is marked by greater contestation, military and otherwise, this tightrope will become increasingly difficult to walk.
But as a small nation, retaining agency must remain a key national priority for the foreseeable future.
Nicholas Fang is founder and managing director of strategic consultancy Black Dot, and a former journalist and Nominated Member of Parliament. He writes a monthly column for CNA.
Continue reading...
The decision by the US and Israel to attack Iran on Feb 28 has sparked a conflict that threatens to engulf the Middle East and disrupt countries’ energy supplies.
As a small but influential player on the global stage, Singapore is often placed in an interesting position.
While not a major power able to dictate the direction of international geopolitics, Singapore’s leaders are often consulted for their views on global developments at fora ranging from the United Nations to the World Economic Forum and Munich Security Conference.
As a transport, technology and finance hub, Singapore’s policies and actions have had an outsized impact on the region and the world, and are keenly watched by investors and other states.
Related:
WHEN ELEPHANTS FIGHT
As the proverb goes, “When elephants fight, it is the grass that suffers.” Smaller players like Singapore often find themselves on the decision-making sidelines when major powers make moves against one another.
In recent years, we have seen wars break out in Europe and the Middle East. While the tensions in Gaza seem to have eased slightly after a ceasefire, the latest turmoil in Iran will ratchet up the temperature in that region again.
The impact on the proverbial “grass” has already been felt around the world. Oil and energy prices have surged, financial markets have tumbled amid increasing uncertainty, and the prognosis for global economic development in 2026 appears bleaker than it was prior to the conflict.
With a speedy end to the Iran war seemingly not a priority of Israel and the US, such global uncertainty looks set to persist in the near term at least.
A DELICATE BALANCING ACT
This brings us to the question of what Singapore can do in such scenarios. The tension between being a small but influential country is brought into focus when conflicts emerge abroad.
In these situations, it may seem that the only option available to smaller nations is to issue carefully worded statements that express concern and call for the cessation of hostilities, respect for sovereignty and human life, and adherence to international law.
A recent exception was the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Along with its statements condemning the invasion, Singapore also imposed rare unilateral sanctions on Russia, targeting military exports, some Russian banks and financial transactions connected to Russia.
Related:
Last week, Foreign Minister Vivian Balakrishnan said Singapore endorses the statement made by the ASEAN foreign ministers on the latest situation in the Middle East.
The statement expressed “serious concern” at the escalation of conflict in the Middle East, and urged parties to respect international law, including the Charter of the United Nations.
Though this may seem to be another example of Singapore’s limited ability to influence international developments, the country faces unique circumstances.
As a multi-racial and multi-religious country that is open to information and influences from around the world, international conflicts often arouse different views among the domestic populace. On potentially contentious issues or developments, the government thus avoids taking a strong position that could result in animosity or unhappiness among local communities.
When it comes to foreign policy, Singapore’s long-held preference to maintain good relations among as many friends as possible means that excessively strong statements or official positions can mean the loss of strategic ambiguity, which can be invaluable when it comes to international diplomacy.
Related:
WHITHER SINGAPORE’S AGENCY?
At the same time, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong argued that Singapore is not without agency in an increasingly complex and unpredictable global environment.
Speaking at the S Rajaratnam Lecture series organised by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs' Diplomatic Academy last year, Mr Wong said that, despite Singapore’s limitations as a small state, it cannot afford to be a passive bystander and should seek to shape its own destiny.
He said this can be done via three key thrusts: contributing actively to the stewardship of the global commons, championing deeper regional cohesion and integration, as well as strengthening its global network of partnerships.
While Singapore looks outward to achieve these aims, it must balance sensitivities at home and with partners abroad. As the world evolves away from a stable rules-based global order into one that is marked by greater contestation, military and otherwise, this tightrope will become increasingly difficult to walk.
But as a small nation, retaining agency must remain a key national priority for the foreseeable future.
Nicholas Fang is founder and managing director of strategic consultancy Black Dot, and a former journalist and Nominated Member of Parliament. He writes a monthly column for CNA.
Continue reading...