SINGAPORE: For years, the foreign policy elite in Washington DC and across Southeast Asian capitals complained the United States did not spend enough time paying attention to the region. That certainly has not been the case this week.
Wednesday (Jul 9) kicked off with Singapore front and centre. “Singapore is our key strategic partner and friend in the Indo-Pacific. Close cooperation with Singapore, along with our other allies and partners in the region, is more critical today than ever before,” Dr Anjani Sinha testified at his confirmation hearing to be US Ambassador there.
On the same day Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth grilled Dr Sinha in the US Capitol at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, US President Donald Trump finished tariffing the rest of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) at the White House.
This included new letters to Brunei and the Philippines, after a first set sent on Monday to six Southeast Asian countries and a “deal” announcement with Vietnam last week, meaning tariffs cover all of ASEAN beyond the 10 per cent “baseline” tariff, other than Singapore which has not received a letter and faces the minimum rate.
Across the Pacific, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in Kuala Lumpur for his first Asia visit to attend the ASEAN regional forum.
What this whirlwind of activity means for Southeast Asia remains to be seen.
The geostrategic importance of Singapore came out loud and clear during the ambassadorial nominee’s hearing.
Singapore is “one of the most important friends we have in the Indo-Pacific, a key place we're going to be fighting against our greatest adversary in the region, the [People's Republic of China]," said Ms Duckworth in her questioning.
Unfortunately, Dr Sinha was unprepared to answer basic questions about the country, including the US trade surplus with Singapore, issues of importance when it takes over as ASEAN chair in 2027 or the way the US Navy works with Singapore.
Ms Duckworth’s conclusion: "You are not currently prepared for this posting, period. And you need to shape up and do some homework."
This should not have happened and was easily avoidable even with a political novice being thrown into a high-stakes process. Confirmation hearings for these types of positions are typically boring, well-scripted sessions.
Still, this does not mean he cannot be a net positive to the US-Singapore relationship.
If confirmed, which is likely, Dr Sinha would be supported by world-class US Embassy career foreign service and commercial officers. And, if he has the type of relationship with the US president where he can advance bilateral interests directly, which appears to be the case, that counts most.
“Dr Sinha plays golf with Trump and is Don Jr’s orthopaedic surgeon… certainly better than the normal State Department types who are despised by the MAGA group,” Bilahari Kausikan, former Permanent Secretary at Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told me.
Just as Mr Trump’s tariffs loomed large over Dr Sinha’s hearing, so will they over Mr Rubio’s first official trip to the region. The revised levies announced this week – now scheduled to start from Aug 1 – continue to hang precipitously over Southeast Asia.
Every country in Southeast Asia besides Singapore has tariffs well above Mr Trump’s declared baseline of 10 per cent. Even striking a “deal” – as did Vietnam and possibly Cambodia – lessens but does not take away the pain, especially as there may be more tariffs to come for key sectors such as electronics.
Mr Trump makes his message clear: Strategic alignment doesn’t guarantee economic relief. Even treaty allies and close partners aren’t exempt, with curbing China now the central concern of US trade policy.
US President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, DC, US on Apr 2, 2025. (Photo: Reuters/Carlos Barria)
Growing suspicion that Southeast Asia has become a hub for Chinese goods exported to the US drives these tariffs. Assembling China-made components into goods exported from ASEAN bypass existing tariffs, as does Chinese investment into building factories for export across the region.
Against the backdrop of Mr Trump hammering the region with tariffs, Mr Rubio will be in Malaysia working to reaffirm US commitment to East Asia, to ASEAN and to the Indo-Pacific. A senior State Department official said that “a key message that the Secretary likes to deliver is that we're committed, and we prioritise it because it is in America’s interests. It promotes American prosperity, and it promotes American security”.
Earlier this century, US administrations never bothered to send Cabinet secretaries to ASEAN meetings.
Even if punishing tariffs threaten to overshadow the message of US commitment, Mr Rubio being there might be better than not showing up at all.
But ASEAN countries are understandably uneasy. Mr Trump’s America First trade policy has left many questioning whether the US can still be relied upon as a long-term diplomatic and economic partner.
Mr Trump’s long-standing call for strategic decoupling from China aligns with broader US security concerns, and China will no doubt feature prominently in Mr Rubio’s conversations with ASEAN leaders. But that focus offers little relief to regional governments facing immediate economic fallout from tariffs.
ASEAN leaders also understand the limits of Mr Rubio’s influence, even as he reaffirms US commitment to regional security. They’ve seen firsthand how this administration separates security ties from economic policy – even with treaty allies.
When strategic partners are treated no differently than competitors, and when trade relationships are dictated by political timelines rather than economic logic, confidence in long-term US reliability erodes.
Marc Mealy, executive vice president and chief policy officer of the US-ASEAN Business Council, provided me a broader regional perspective: “If on Aug 1, US importers will have to pay higher tariffs to the US Treasury when purchasing goods made in all 10 ASEAN countries, what happens next will be influenced by the domestic reform, global trade diversification and regional economic integration efforts of ASEAN nations.”
In this new reality, ASEAN won't walk away from the US, but will recalibrate.
They are adapting to a United States that remains much discussed in Washington DC and continues to show up – but doesn’t follow its old playbook.
Steven Okun serves as CEO of APAC Advisors, a geostrategic and responsible investment consultancy based in Singapore. He served as Deputy General Counsel at the US Department of Transportation in the Administration of President Bill Clinton. Noemie Viterale contributed as well.
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Wednesday (Jul 9) kicked off with Singapore front and centre. “Singapore is our key strategic partner and friend in the Indo-Pacific. Close cooperation with Singapore, along with our other allies and partners in the region, is more critical today than ever before,” Dr Anjani Sinha testified at his confirmation hearing to be US Ambassador there.
On the same day Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth grilled Dr Sinha in the US Capitol at the Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing, US President Donald Trump finished tariffing the rest of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) at the White House.
This included new letters to Brunei and the Philippines, after a first set sent on Monday to six Southeast Asian countries and a “deal” announcement with Vietnam last week, meaning tariffs cover all of ASEAN beyond the 10 per cent “baseline” tariff, other than Singapore which has not received a letter and faces the minimum rate.
Across the Pacific, Secretary of State Marco Rubio was in Kuala Lumpur for his first Asia visit to attend the ASEAN regional forum.
What this whirlwind of activity means for Southeast Asia remains to be seen.
AN UNPREPARED NOMINEE FOR SINGAPORE POST
The geostrategic importance of Singapore came out loud and clear during the ambassadorial nominee’s hearing.
Singapore is “one of the most important friends we have in the Indo-Pacific, a key place we're going to be fighting against our greatest adversary in the region, the [People's Republic of China]," said Ms Duckworth in her questioning.
Unfortunately, Dr Sinha was unprepared to answer basic questions about the country, including the US trade surplus with Singapore, issues of importance when it takes over as ASEAN chair in 2027 or the way the US Navy works with Singapore.
Ms Duckworth’s conclusion: "You are not currently prepared for this posting, period. And you need to shape up and do some homework."
This should not have happened and was easily avoidable even with a political novice being thrown into a high-stakes process. Confirmation hearings for these types of positions are typically boring, well-scripted sessions.
Related:
Still, this does not mean he cannot be a net positive to the US-Singapore relationship.
If confirmed, which is likely, Dr Sinha would be supported by world-class US Embassy career foreign service and commercial officers. And, if he has the type of relationship with the US president where he can advance bilateral interests directly, which appears to be the case, that counts most.
“Dr Sinha plays golf with Trump and is Don Jr’s orthopaedic surgeon… certainly better than the normal State Department types who are despised by the MAGA group,” Bilahari Kausikan, former Permanent Secretary at Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told me.
RUBIO’S FIRST ASIA VISIT AMID TARIFFS
Just as Mr Trump’s tariffs loomed large over Dr Sinha’s hearing, so will they over Mr Rubio’s first official trip to the region. The revised levies announced this week – now scheduled to start from Aug 1 – continue to hang precipitously over Southeast Asia.
Every country in Southeast Asia besides Singapore has tariffs well above Mr Trump’s declared baseline of 10 per cent. Even striking a “deal” – as did Vietnam and possibly Cambodia – lessens but does not take away the pain, especially as there may be more tariffs to come for key sectors such as electronics.
Mr Trump makes his message clear: Strategic alignment doesn’t guarantee economic relief. Even treaty allies and close partners aren’t exempt, with curbing China now the central concern of US trade policy.
US President Donald Trump delivers remarks on tariffs in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, DC, US on Apr 2, 2025. (Photo: Reuters/Carlos Barria)
Growing suspicion that Southeast Asia has become a hub for Chinese goods exported to the US drives these tariffs. Assembling China-made components into goods exported from ASEAN bypass existing tariffs, as does Chinese investment into building factories for export across the region.
Against the backdrop of Mr Trump hammering the region with tariffs, Mr Rubio will be in Malaysia working to reaffirm US commitment to East Asia, to ASEAN and to the Indo-Pacific. A senior State Department official said that “a key message that the Secretary likes to deliver is that we're committed, and we prioritise it because it is in America’s interests. It promotes American prosperity, and it promotes American security”.
Earlier this century, US administrations never bothered to send Cabinet secretaries to ASEAN meetings.
Even if punishing tariffs threaten to overshadow the message of US commitment, Mr Rubio being there might be better than not showing up at all.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
But ASEAN countries are understandably uneasy. Mr Trump’s America First trade policy has left many questioning whether the US can still be relied upon as a long-term diplomatic and economic partner.
Related:
Mr Trump’s long-standing call for strategic decoupling from China aligns with broader US security concerns, and China will no doubt feature prominently in Mr Rubio’s conversations with ASEAN leaders. But that focus offers little relief to regional governments facing immediate economic fallout from tariffs.
ASEAN leaders also understand the limits of Mr Rubio’s influence, even as he reaffirms US commitment to regional security. They’ve seen firsthand how this administration separates security ties from economic policy – even with treaty allies.
When strategic partners are treated no differently than competitors, and when trade relationships are dictated by political timelines rather than economic logic, confidence in long-term US reliability erodes.
Marc Mealy, executive vice president and chief policy officer of the US-ASEAN Business Council, provided me a broader regional perspective: “If on Aug 1, US importers will have to pay higher tariffs to the US Treasury when purchasing goods made in all 10 ASEAN countries, what happens next will be influenced by the domestic reform, global trade diversification and regional economic integration efforts of ASEAN nations.”
In this new reality, ASEAN won't walk away from the US, but will recalibrate.
They are adapting to a United States that remains much discussed in Washington DC and continues to show up – but doesn’t follow its old playbook.
Steven Okun serves as CEO of APAC Advisors, a geostrategic and responsible investment consultancy based in Singapore. He served as Deputy General Counsel at the US Department of Transportation in the Administration of President Bill Clinton. Noemie Viterale contributed as well.
Continue reading...