SINGAPORE: Labour mobility has never been completely free. Governments have long relied on visas, quotas and fees to regulate entry, balancing economic needs with political priorities. What is different today is the weight these measures carry as signals.
Access to skilled workers has become a defining factor in global competitiveness, and the rules that govern mobility now carry consequences far beyond their administrative details. This is why the United States imposing a US$100,000 annual fee on H-1B visa applications has drawn such close attention.
Rules that were once routine are now interpreted as markers of openness, reliability and long-term stability.
How will it reshape the choices of firms and workers? For companies, the fee changes the calculus of where to expand, hire and invest. For professionals, it alters expectations about which countries offer security and long-term opportunity.
The measure is therefore not merely an adjustment in policy but a signal that could redirect flows of talent, and with them the geography of innovation, in the years to come.
The H-1B has long been tied to America’s innovation capacity, because those who fill them often contribute far beyond their immediate jobs.
It is the main US visa for companies seeking to employ foreign professionals in technology, healthcare and engineering, typically for roles that require deep expertise. Each year, about 85,000 new visas are issued. More than just filling gaps, they bring new ideas, join start-ups and transfer knowledge to colleagues, creating spillovers that strengthen the wider economy.
Empirical evidence points in the same direction. Greater access to H-1Bs has coincided with higher patenting activity, faster productivity growth in US cities and a stronger presence of immigrant founders in high-growth firms. Many of America’s most successful start-ups can be traced to entrepreneurs with immigrant backgrounds, underscoring the broader role these workers play.
However, demand for H-1B has for years far exceeded supply. Hundreds of thousands of applications compete for just 85,000 slots, with a lottery deciding who succeeds.
Even well-qualified applicants and sponsoring firms face long odds. Historically, the selection rate has ranged from 25 to 35 per cent. Winning an H-1B is therefore dependent on chance, making long-term planning for both firms and workers uncertain.
The US$100,000 fee, along with a proposed "weighted selection process" that favours high-wage applicants, could shift this dynamic. It moves the mechanism from lottery towards price: access determined not by chance, but by willingness (and ability) to pay.
Seen in this way, talent becomes a scarce resource with a price tag, much like goods facing tariffs. In theory, such a system could provide predictability for firms while raising revenue for governments.
But the analogy quickly breaks down, because people are not standardised commodities. With goods, tariffs shift prices and supply chains. With people, the stakes are higher.
Hiring an international engineer is not only about paying a fee. It involves relocating families, investing in training and building careers.
What makes labour different from goods is that flows cannot be easily rerouted or stockpiled. A shipment of steel can be redirected in weeks, but the relocation of skilled professionals involves families, institutions and life trajectories.
Once those choices are made, they are sticky. This makes visible changes in visa regimes unusually powerful: They can shift beliefs and redirect flows for years to come.
This is why visa rules matter not only for their cost but for the expectations they generate. Firms expand where they expect a reliable pool of skilled workers. Professionals move where they believe long-term security is likely.
A large visa fee, especially one designed to shock, becomes a visible marker that shapes these expectations. The result is that decisions about where to work, where to invest, and where to raise families are guided less by today’s costs than by tomorrow’s anticipated stability.
It is in this environment of signals, rather than reciprocal measures, that countries now compete.
While the Trump administration has framed this visa fee change as a way to boost American workers by reducing competition from foreigners, the broader reality is that many countries face constraints in producing enough skilled workers who are well matched to the evolving demands of today’s economy.
Other governments are moving quickly to make themselves more attractive. Canada has introduced its Global Talent Stream, with approvals in as little as two weeks. The United Kingdom has launched its High Potential Individual visa to draw top graduates.
China rolled out the K visa on Wednesday (Oct 1) to attract early-career science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) talent without requiring a local sponsor. The move reflects a broader effort to strengthen research and innovation ecosystems, and to signal that international expertise has a role in China’s long-term growth.
Changes in one country can alter expectations for firms and workers, and create spillover effects across borders.
For Singapore, the implication is different. Unlike the US, it cannot rely on sheer market size, global brand power or the gravitational pull of world-leading universities and firms to attract talent.
The global race for talent is intensifying and Singapore's advantage lies in stability and predictability. (File photo: iStock)
Singapore’s advantage lies instead in stability and predictability. The Overseas Networks & Expertise (ONE) Pass, launched in 2023, reflects this approach: a five-year visa extending work rights to dependents, designed to signal a longer-term commitment to international talent.
Here, the real contest is not about offering the highest salaries or the largest markets. It is about trust.
Talented professionals weigh not only paychecks and job offers but also whether the rules will hold tomorrow. In a world where policy shifts are increasingly common, stability and predictability have become the most important signal.
That credibility must extend beyond visas. Schools, housing, healthcare and the ease of doing business all shape where people choose to live, raise families and build their futures. Talent does not move only for jobs but for the full ecosystem.
The challenge ahead is to sustain this edge. Other countries are innovating with faster approvals and new pathways, and the race for talent is intensifying. To stay ahead, Singapore will need to match predictability with flexibility, continually refining how it attracts, integrates and retains global talent.
This credibility is Singapore’s edge in the global race for talent.
Chua Yeow Hwee is an Assistant Professor in Economics at the Nanyang Technological University (NTU). He is also the Deputy Director of the Economic Growth Centre at NTU. The opinions expressed are those of the writer and do not represent the views and opinions of the institutions that he is in.
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Access to skilled workers has become a defining factor in global competitiveness, and the rules that govern mobility now carry consequences far beyond their administrative details. This is why the United States imposing a US$100,000 annual fee on H-1B visa applications has drawn such close attention.
Rules that were once routine are now interpreted as markers of openness, reliability and long-term stability.
How will it reshape the choices of firms and workers? For companies, the fee changes the calculus of where to expand, hire and invest. For professionals, it alters expectations about which countries offer security and long-term opportunity.
The measure is therefore not merely an adjustment in policy but a signal that could redirect flows of talent, and with them the geography of innovation, in the years to come.
THE H-1B AND AMERICA’S ADVANTAGE
The H-1B has long been tied to America’s innovation capacity, because those who fill them often contribute far beyond their immediate jobs.
It is the main US visa for companies seeking to employ foreign professionals in technology, healthcare and engineering, typically for roles that require deep expertise. Each year, about 85,000 new visas are issued. More than just filling gaps, they bring new ideas, join start-ups and transfer knowledge to colleagues, creating spillovers that strengthen the wider economy.
Empirical evidence points in the same direction. Greater access to H-1Bs has coincided with higher patenting activity, faster productivity growth in US cities and a stronger presence of immigrant founders in high-growth firms. Many of America’s most successful start-ups can be traced to entrepreneurs with immigrant backgrounds, underscoring the broader role these workers play.
However, demand for H-1B has for years far exceeded supply. Hundreds of thousands of applications compete for just 85,000 slots, with a lottery deciding who succeeds.
Even well-qualified applicants and sponsoring firms face long odds. Historically, the selection rate has ranged from 25 to 35 per cent. Winning an H-1B is therefore dependent on chance, making long-term planning for both firms and workers uncertain.
Related:
The US$100,000 fee, along with a proposed "weighted selection process" that favours high-wage applicants, could shift this dynamic. It moves the mechanism from lottery towards price: access determined not by chance, but by willingness (and ability) to pay.
Seen in this way, talent becomes a scarce resource with a price tag, much like goods facing tariffs. In theory, such a system could provide predictability for firms while raising revenue for governments.
SKILLED WORKERS VALUE LONG-TERM SECURITY
But the analogy quickly breaks down, because people are not standardised commodities. With goods, tariffs shift prices and supply chains. With people, the stakes are higher.
Hiring an international engineer is not only about paying a fee. It involves relocating families, investing in training and building careers.
What makes labour different from goods is that flows cannot be easily rerouted or stockpiled. A shipment of steel can be redirected in weeks, but the relocation of skilled professionals involves families, institutions and life trajectories.
Once those choices are made, they are sticky. This makes visible changes in visa regimes unusually powerful: They can shift beliefs and redirect flows for years to come.
This is why visa rules matter not only for their cost but for the expectations they generate. Firms expand where they expect a reliable pool of skilled workers. Professionals move where they believe long-term security is likely.
A large visa fee, especially one designed to shock, becomes a visible marker that shapes these expectations. The result is that decisions about where to work, where to invest, and where to raise families are guided less by today’s costs than by tomorrow’s anticipated stability.
THE GLOBAL RACE FOR TALENT
It is in this environment of signals, rather than reciprocal measures, that countries now compete.
While the Trump administration has framed this visa fee change as a way to boost American workers by reducing competition from foreigners, the broader reality is that many countries face constraints in producing enough skilled workers who are well matched to the evolving demands of today’s economy.
Related:
Other governments are moving quickly to make themselves more attractive. Canada has introduced its Global Talent Stream, with approvals in as little as two weeks. The United Kingdom has launched its High Potential Individual visa to draw top graduates.
China rolled out the K visa on Wednesday (Oct 1) to attract early-career science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) talent without requiring a local sponsor. The move reflects a broader effort to strengthen research and innovation ecosystems, and to signal that international expertise has a role in China’s long-term growth.
Changes in one country can alter expectations for firms and workers, and create spillover effects across borders.
WHAT LIES AHEAD FOR SINGAPORE
For Singapore, the implication is different. Unlike the US, it cannot rely on sheer market size, global brand power or the gravitational pull of world-leading universities and firms to attract talent.
The global race for talent is intensifying and Singapore's advantage lies in stability and predictability. (File photo: iStock)
Singapore’s advantage lies instead in stability and predictability. The Overseas Networks & Expertise (ONE) Pass, launched in 2023, reflects this approach: a five-year visa extending work rights to dependents, designed to signal a longer-term commitment to international talent.
Here, the real contest is not about offering the highest salaries or the largest markets. It is about trust.
Talented professionals weigh not only paychecks and job offers but also whether the rules will hold tomorrow. In a world where policy shifts are increasingly common, stability and predictability have become the most important signal.
That credibility must extend beyond visas. Schools, housing, healthcare and the ease of doing business all shape where people choose to live, raise families and build their futures. Talent does not move only for jobs but for the full ecosystem.
The challenge ahead is to sustain this edge. Other countries are innovating with faster approvals and new pathways, and the race for talent is intensifying. To stay ahead, Singapore will need to match predictability with flexibility, continually refining how it attracts, integrates and retains global talent.
This credibility is Singapore’s edge in the global race for talent.
Chua Yeow Hwee is an Assistant Professor in Economics at the Nanyang Technological University (NTU). He is also the Deputy Director of the Economic Growth Centre at NTU. The opinions expressed are those of the writer and do not represent the views and opinions of the institutions that he is in.
Continue reading...