SINGAPORE: The result of the 2025 General Election in Singapore was politically significant and deserves a more thorough analysis.
For those in the opposition camp, the shock of losing by such a wide margin in almost every constituency, bar those contested by the Workers’ Party, was so unsettling that it left many with nothing much to say except the usual line that they promise to do better next time.
For the victorious People’s Action Party, the unexpected vote gain was so surprising it seemed out of place to celebrate and talk too much about it.
Hence, for different reasons, not much has been said by both sides on a very consequential outcome.
The Institute of Policy Studies’ report on GE2025, released on Tuesday (Sep 2), is a welcome source of information that should help fill some of this void, especially as it was part of a long-running series of surveys starting from GE2006, enabling researchers to compare the findings to previous GEs, especially the one in 2020.
Did it answer the question of why there was such a large swing towards the ruling party?
It did, but only in a very general way – and with a caveat.
First, which group of voters gave the strongest support to the PAP?
The answer was clear: The older the voters, the more the flight to the safety of the incumbent party.
Of those above 65 years old, eight in 10 voted for the PAP, with the share falling to seven in 10 in the 51-65 age group, and to six in 10 for those below 51 years old.
When broken down by housing types and education levels, the picture is a mixed one. Seven in 10 of those living in private housing and those with secondary education and lower said they voted for the PAP.
It would appear that the party’s appeal was strongest at both ends of the economic spectrum.
These results were obtained by directly asking respondents who they voted for. Although 41.5 per cent of respondents declined to answer the question, the rest did and their responses correlated with the actual election result, which validates to some extent the accuracy of the findings.
Nevertheless, the researchers noted that care must be taken in the interpretation of these findings given that they exclude a sizeable portion of the sample who voted.
What were these voters mainly concerned about?
The findings were not surprising, with the rising cost of living being the top issue. The proportion of people who cited it as a very important concern rose from 47 per cent in 2020 to 74 per cent. A close second was the need for a good and efficient government.
To some extent, these findings answer the question why if the cost of living was such a pressing concern, it did not affect the PAP’s share of the votes which, in fact, went up.
While voters might grumble about having to pay more, it wasn’t clear to them that voting for an opposition candidate would solve the problem.
They wanted a good and efficient government and the PAP seemed to fit the bill, at least that’s what voters seem to be saying.
It is a pity that IPS did not ask respondents how United States President Donald Trump’s shocking announcement in April to impose punitive trade tariffs affected their voting decision.
It created a crisis-like situation for Singapore which is hugely dependent on trade, and the ruling party made the most of a potentially ruinous trade war as its central plank in the election campaign.
I think there is no doubt now that Singaporeans bought the message and voted for a flight to safety, resulting in a nationwide swing of 4.34 percentage points towards the ruling party, giving it a stunning 65.57 per cent of votes.
The threat was made all the more urgent with a new Prime Minister helming the country at an uncertain moment in its history, adding to its sense of vulnerability.
Voters could not do anything to stop Mr Trump but they could give Prime Minister Lawrence Wong the mandate he sought to manage the crisis.
For me, the interesting point is not what caused the swing (which was obvious) but that these swings have become more frequent in recent times.
Significant numbers of voters appear to have switched sides in all five GEs from 2006.
In GE2006, the PAP’s share of the votes fell from 75.3 per cent to 66.6 per cent, a decline of 8.7 percentage points.
In GE2011, it declined by another 6.43 percentage points. The party succeeded in reversing the trend in GE2015 when its share of the votes rose by 9.69 percentage points to 69.86 per cent. In GE2020, the ding-dong continued when its share fell by 8.62 percentage points to 61.24 per cent.
This year’s GE saw it gain 4.34 percentage points.
These are large nationwide swings, but the volatility is even more evident at the constituency level.
Some of the largest swings in individual wards in the last three GEs, for and against the PAP: 16.66 points in 2015 (Bishan-Toa Payoh), 26.8 points in 2020 (West Coast GRC) and 17.97 points in 2025 (Tanjong Pagar GRC).
The usual explanation whenever there are these swings is to look for national issues that might affect votes across the country.
Indeed, there has been no shortage of them, ranging from immigration in 2011 to the COVID pandemic in 2020, the Lee Kuan Yew effect in 2015 and a flight to safety from Mr Trump’s tariffs in 2025.
It is possible in a small compact city like Singapore for one or two issues to influence and swing votes for or against the ruling party.
Voters casting their ballots at the void deck of Block 608 Clementi West Street 1 for the 2025 Singapore General Election on May 3, 2025. (Photo: CNA/Mak Jia Kee)
What is significant is not the existence of national issues that sway voters, but that there is such a high number of people who can be persuaded to switch parties from one election to the next.
A 10 percentage point swing is a big deal, which in a GRC, might involve tens of thousands of voters.
In more mature democracies such as the US, the majority of voters are affiliated to one of the two main political parties and they usually vote accordingly. That is why the outcome of its presidential election usually depends on a few so-called swing states.
In these states, a one or two percentage point movement is all that can be expected and often enough to decide the result; a 10 percentage point swing is unheard of.
This has important implications for Singapore elections.
Because voters here are not as ideologically attached to each party as elsewhere, they can be swayed by many factors that come into play at election time, including policy issues, the quality of the candidates or the external environment.
Voter volatility keeps political parties on their toes. They know they have to be seen to deliver, to be able to connect with the electorate, to stay relevant to their needs and to have their character and motivations constantly examined.
There is no free pass on any of these issues so long as there are enough choices available for voters.
The extent to which votes change in Singapore is hence good for accountability.
For the PAP, it means having to continue upping its game no matter how large its majority.
For opposition parties, it can mean political oblivion if voters doubt their relevance or credibility, as did happen to many of them in GE2025.
On the other hand, it also means they can bounce back, but only if they make changes that swing votes their way.
People's Action Party (PAP) supporters fill up the stands while attending a rally at Jurong West stadium, Apr 27, 2025. (Photo: CNA/Tan Wen Lin)
How do these swings affect the PAP and the WP, as the latter strive to reduce the ruling party’s super majority in future GEs?
Not surprisingly, there were relatively lower vote swings between these two parties when they went head-to-head.
In this year’s GE, the swings were less than one percentage point in Aljunied GRC and Hougang SMC but between 4 to 5 points in East Coast GRC and Sengkang GRC.
This pattern will likely continue in future, with no dramatic swings in support for either party but with moderate movements still possible.
The IPS survey reinforces this point when respondents were asked about the respective parties’ credibility: The PAP’s mean score was identical to the WP’s, meaning the same proportion of people believe both to be credible parties.
What this means is that, as with past GEs, a few wards may be in play between these two parties but not enough to cause any major political upset.
Singapore’s journey towards a two-party system will likely be a slow and gradual process, with ups and downs along the way.
Look out though for unexpected swings that might upset the status quo.
Han Fook Kwang was a veteran newspaper editor and is a senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.
Continue reading...
For those in the opposition camp, the shock of losing by such a wide margin in almost every constituency, bar those contested by the Workers’ Party, was so unsettling that it left many with nothing much to say except the usual line that they promise to do better next time.
For the victorious People’s Action Party, the unexpected vote gain was so surprising it seemed out of place to celebrate and talk too much about it.
Hence, for different reasons, not much has been said by both sides on a very consequential outcome.
The Institute of Policy Studies’ report on GE2025, released on Tuesday (Sep 2), is a welcome source of information that should help fill some of this void, especially as it was part of a long-running series of surveys starting from GE2006, enabling researchers to compare the findings to previous GEs, especially the one in 2020.
Did it answer the question of why there was such a large swing towards the ruling party?
It did, but only in a very general way – and with a caveat.
Related:
First, which group of voters gave the strongest support to the PAP?
The answer was clear: The older the voters, the more the flight to the safety of the incumbent party.
Of those above 65 years old, eight in 10 voted for the PAP, with the share falling to seven in 10 in the 51-65 age group, and to six in 10 for those below 51 years old.
When broken down by housing types and education levels, the picture is a mixed one. Seven in 10 of those living in private housing and those with secondary education and lower said they voted for the PAP.
It would appear that the party’s appeal was strongest at both ends of the economic spectrum.
These results were obtained by directly asking respondents who they voted for. Although 41.5 per cent of respondents declined to answer the question, the rest did and their responses correlated with the actual election result, which validates to some extent the accuracy of the findings.
Nevertheless, the researchers noted that care must be taken in the interpretation of these findings given that they exclude a sizeable portion of the sample who voted.
Related:
What were these voters mainly concerned about?
The findings were not surprising, with the rising cost of living being the top issue. The proportion of people who cited it as a very important concern rose from 47 per cent in 2020 to 74 per cent. A close second was the need for a good and efficient government.
To some extent, these findings answer the question why if the cost of living was such a pressing concern, it did not affect the PAP’s share of the votes which, in fact, went up.
While voters might grumble about having to pay more, it wasn’t clear to them that voting for an opposition candidate would solve the problem.
They wanted a good and efficient government and the PAP seemed to fit the bill, at least that’s what voters seem to be saying.
It is a pity that IPS did not ask respondents how United States President Donald Trump’s shocking announcement in April to impose punitive trade tariffs affected their voting decision.
It created a crisis-like situation for Singapore which is hugely dependent on trade, and the ruling party made the most of a potentially ruinous trade war as its central plank in the election campaign.
I think there is no doubt now that Singaporeans bought the message and voted for a flight to safety, resulting in a nationwide swing of 4.34 percentage points towards the ruling party, giving it a stunning 65.57 per cent of votes.
The threat was made all the more urgent with a new Prime Minister helming the country at an uncertain moment in its history, adding to its sense of vulnerability.
Voters could not do anything to stop Mr Trump but they could give Prime Minister Lawrence Wong the mandate he sought to manage the crisis.
For me, the interesting point is not what caused the swing (which was obvious) but that these swings have become more frequent in recent times.
Significant numbers of voters appear to have switched sides in all five GEs from 2006.
In GE2006, the PAP’s share of the votes fell from 75.3 per cent to 66.6 per cent, a decline of 8.7 percentage points.
In GE2011, it declined by another 6.43 percentage points. The party succeeded in reversing the trend in GE2015 when its share of the votes rose by 9.69 percentage points to 69.86 per cent. In GE2020, the ding-dong continued when its share fell by 8.62 percentage points to 61.24 per cent.
This year’s GE saw it gain 4.34 percentage points.
These are large nationwide swings, but the volatility is even more evident at the constituency level.
Some of the largest swings in individual wards in the last three GEs, for and against the PAP: 16.66 points in 2015 (Bishan-Toa Payoh), 26.8 points in 2020 (West Coast GRC) and 17.97 points in 2025 (Tanjong Pagar GRC).
The usual explanation whenever there are these swings is to look for national issues that might affect votes across the country.
Indeed, there has been no shortage of them, ranging from immigration in 2011 to the COVID pandemic in 2020, the Lee Kuan Yew effect in 2015 and a flight to safety from Mr Trump’s tariffs in 2025.
It is possible in a small compact city like Singapore for one or two issues to influence and swing votes for or against the ruling party.
Voters casting their ballots at the void deck of Block 608 Clementi West Street 1 for the 2025 Singapore General Election on May 3, 2025. (Photo: CNA/Mak Jia Kee)
SINGAPORE’S VOTER VOLATILITY
What is significant is not the existence of national issues that sway voters, but that there is such a high number of people who can be persuaded to switch parties from one election to the next.
A 10 percentage point swing is a big deal, which in a GRC, might involve tens of thousands of voters.
In more mature democracies such as the US, the majority of voters are affiliated to one of the two main political parties and they usually vote accordingly. That is why the outcome of its presidential election usually depends on a few so-called swing states.
In these states, a one or two percentage point movement is all that can be expected and often enough to decide the result; a 10 percentage point swing is unheard of.
This has important implications for Singapore elections.
Because voters here are not as ideologically attached to each party as elsewhere, they can be swayed by many factors that come into play at election time, including policy issues, the quality of the candidates or the external environment.
Voter volatility keeps political parties on their toes. They know they have to be seen to deliver, to be able to connect with the electorate, to stay relevant to their needs and to have their character and motivations constantly examined.
There is no free pass on any of these issues so long as there are enough choices available for voters.
The extent to which votes change in Singapore is hence good for accountability.
For the PAP, it means having to continue upping its game no matter how large its majority.
For opposition parties, it can mean political oblivion if voters doubt their relevance or credibility, as did happen to many of them in GE2025.
On the other hand, it also means they can bounce back, but only if they make changes that swing votes their way.
People's Action Party (PAP) supporters fill up the stands while attending a rally at Jurong West stadium, Apr 27, 2025. (Photo: CNA/Tan Wen Lin)
How do these swings affect the PAP and the WP, as the latter strive to reduce the ruling party’s super majority in future GEs?
Not surprisingly, there were relatively lower vote swings between these two parties when they went head-to-head.
In this year’s GE, the swings were less than one percentage point in Aljunied GRC and Hougang SMC but between 4 to 5 points in East Coast GRC and Sengkang GRC.
This pattern will likely continue in future, with no dramatic swings in support for either party but with moderate movements still possible.
The IPS survey reinforces this point when respondents were asked about the respective parties’ credibility: The PAP’s mean score was identical to the WP’s, meaning the same proportion of people believe both to be credible parties.
What this means is that, as with past GEs, a few wards may be in play between these two parties but not enough to cause any major political upset.
Singapore’s journey towards a two-party system will likely be a slow and gradual process, with ups and downs along the way.
Look out though for unexpected swings that might upset the status quo.
Han Fook Kwang was a veteran newspaper editor and is a senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University.
Continue reading...