SINGAPORE: Private sector economists have raised their growth forecast for the Singapore economy this year to 4.1 per cent, significantly higher than their previous estimate of 2.4 per cent made in September.
The projection, released by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in its latest survey of professional forecasters on Wednesday (Dec 17), is similar to the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s (MTI) forecast of around 4 per cent, and slightly lower than the 4.4 per cent growth recorded last year.
A total of 20 economists and analysts responded to the survey, MAS said.
The Singapore economy expanded by 4.2 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, easily beating the respondents’ median forecast of 0.9 per cent in the previous survey in September.
In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 3.6 per cent year-on-year in the final quarter of 2025.
Geopolitical risks, including an escalation in trade tensions and wars, wereburst of the artificial intelligence bubble (AI), with spillovers to financial markets as well as external slowdown as a potential risk.
Meanwhile, most respondents cited a sustained AI-led tech cycle upturn as an "upside risk" to Singapore’s economic outlook, with resilient global growth and the easing of trade tensions as key upside risks.
Their inflation forecasts remained unchanged from the previous survey. The median projection for headline or overall inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index-All Items (CPI-All Items), remains at 0.9 per cent for the full year.
CPI-All Items inflation excludes non-consumption expenditures such as purchases of houses, shares and other financial assets and income taxes.
Meanwhile core inflation, which excludes accommodation and private transportation costs, is forecast at 0.7 per cent, unchanged from the previous survey.
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The projection, released by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in its latest survey of professional forecasters on Wednesday (Dec 17), is similar to the Ministry of Trade and Industry’s (MTI) forecast of around 4 per cent, and slightly lower than the 4.4 per cent growth recorded last year.
A total of 20 economists and analysts responded to the survey, MAS said.
The Singapore economy expanded by 4.2 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2025, easily beating the respondents’ median forecast of 0.9 per cent in the previous survey in September.
In the current survey, the respondents expect the economy to grow by 3.6 per cent year-on-year in the final quarter of 2025.
Geopolitical risks, including an escalation in trade tensions and wars, wereburst of the artificial intelligence bubble (AI), with spillovers to financial markets as well as external slowdown as a potential risk.
Meanwhile, most respondents cited a sustained AI-led tech cycle upturn as an "upside risk" to Singapore’s economic outlook, with resilient global growth and the easing of trade tensions as key upside risks.
Their inflation forecasts remained unchanged from the previous survey. The median projection for headline or overall inflation, measured by the Consumer Price Index-All Items (CPI-All Items), remains at 0.9 per cent for the full year.
CPI-All Items inflation excludes non-consumption expenditures such as purchases of houses, shares and other financial assets and income taxes.
Meanwhile core inflation, which excludes accommodation and private transportation costs, is forecast at 0.7 per cent, unchanged from the previous survey.
Continue reading...