SINGAPORE: It was a nail-biting morning that had finally arrived. Would there be a new American president? Or would it be four more years of Trump?
Inside a brightly-lit ballroom at the Conrad Centennial Singapore hotel on Wednesday (Nov 4), 120 people gathered to find out the results of the US elections - in a year marred by the COVID-19 pandemic and a resulting economic fallout - and its impact on the Asia-Pacific region.
AdvertisementAdvertisementResults were broadcast on CNN and FOX News on giant screens as American business and community leaders heard from panellists including former US ambassador to Singapore Frank Lavin and former US embassy deputy chief of missions in Singapore Blair Hall.
[h=3]READ: Live updates: America decides between Trump and Biden in historic US election[/h]The US embassy's Chargé d'Affaires Rafik Mansour said in his opening speech that no matter the outcome, America would remain a "key player in the Indo-Pacific and Singapore", especially as it continues to build on its "indispensable economic, political and security cooperation".
He called the economic relationship between Singapore and the US "dynamic", noting there were more than 4,500 American companies operating here employing 200,000 people.
AdvertisementAdvertisementThe US-Singapore free-trade agreement signed in 2003 remains one of the "gold standards" for trade agreements, he said in his opening speech at the watch party organised by the American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore.
"That unshakable economic relationship is strongly rooted in our many shared values, and a common desire for stability, progress and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific," Mr Mansour added.
According to the US Embassy website, as of 2017, there were more than 30,000 Americans living in Singapore.
[h=3]READ: Senate Republicans and Democrats trade losses as battle for Senate rages[/h] AdvertisementThe other observers agreed there would be little change in US-Singapore relations under either presidency, which they say has been good so far.
"I think that close relationship with Singapore has transcended politics. It’s viewed as a good partner, good friend, good counterpart in the region (with) rule of law, open markets," said Mr Lavin, the former US ambassador to Singapore. He predicted that former vice-president Joe Biden would win by five to seven percentage points.
"And there’s such a strong anchorage of US investment in economic participation here … there’s enormous educational connectivity, there’s good military connectivity, so it’s multifaceted," said Mr Lavin, who is now the chief executive of Export Now and is based in Singapore.
"In general, these two countries look at the world in very much the same way. So there’s no burning bilateral crisis."
But as for ties with Asia, he said: "I think there’s a growing concern about US role in Asia … whether it’s Trump re-elected or Biden wins, I think you see greater emphasis on Asia."
Mr Hall, who is now the managing director of consultancy Westminster Minato, said Singapore is going to remain an important US partner whichever party comes to power.
"I think that the US will continue to look to Singapore as a leader in ASEAN, as a trusted adviser and friend, as a place where we are able to forward deploy forces here for resupply, and to also pay attention to Singapore’s security interests."
TRADE WITH ASIA
On the issue of trade policies, Mr Lavin said that remains an open question.
While Biden has some "parentage" on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) - a key foreign policy during the Obama administration when Biden was vice-president - Trump has been so vocal against trade that it has shifted the debate on it.
However, he said Biden is a much stronger believer in multilateralism than Trump and Singapore would see more interaction with the US administration than the current situation.
Mr Hall also said that it would be unlikely that a Biden administration would immediately agree to join the new version of the TPP, which is now known as the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, or CPTPP.
"What did happen was the remaining countries went forward agree on the CPTPP, but it didn’t have the kind of labour and environmental and other things that were very important to the US," he said.
"So it’s impossible to think of Biden in the current environment with the support that he would have from his party, in Congress, going into an agreement that doesn’t have labour or environmental guarantees to it."
"I think that the discussion on trade and globalisation, the politics of it in the US have changed," he added.
It is also unlikely that the entire agreement would be renegotiated for the US to join the pact again, but Biden could look at other multilateral or bilateral trade agreements.
[h=3]READ: Commentary: Asia’s future hangs on who wins US election[/h]Trade with Asia and Southeast Asia is going to be an important part of the way US engages the region, he said. But at the same time, foreign affairs has only played a small part in either candidate's campaign this year.
"The question is not about bilateral US-Singapore, but more about US and the world - how much time would either president have to think about international relations, and of all of international relations, how much about Southeast Asia compared to Iran or China," he said.
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