SINGAPORE: Singapore’s core inflation rose to 0.4 per cent year-on-year in September, official data showed on Thursday (Oct 23), up from 0.3 per cent in the month before.
The rise was mainly driven by an increase in the prices of retail and other goods, said the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) and Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in a joint statement.
The figure, which excludes private road transport and accommodation costs, was higher than the median forecast of 0.2 per cent in a Reuters poll of economists.
On a month-on-month basis, core prices grew by 0.3 per cent in September.
Overall inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index-All Items (CPI-All Items), picked up to 0.7 per cent year-on-year in September from 0.5 per cent in August, due to a larger increase in private transport prices, as well as rise in core inflation.
On a monthly basis, CPI-All Items inflation - which excludes non-consumption expenditures such as purchases of houses, shares and other financial assets and income taxes - grew by 0.4 per cent in September.
The Consumer Price Index is commonly used in Singapore as a measure of consumer price changes in the economy.
It tracks the change in prices of a fixed basket of consumption goods and services commonly purchased by the general resident households over time.
The CPI-All Items provides a comprehensive overview of the prices of consumer goods and services.
In September, private transport inflation rose to 3.7 per cent year-on-year from 2.4 per cent in August, due to a steeper increase in car prices, MAS and MTI said.
Retail and other goods inflation increased to 0.3 per cent from -0.2 per cent, on account of a rise in prices of furniture and appliances for personal care.
Electricity and gas inflation edged down to -5.8 per cent from -5.7 per cent the month before, owing to a sharper decline in electricity prices.
Accommodation inflation was unchanged at 0.4 per cent, as the pace of increase in housing rents remained the same as in the previous month.
Food inflation was also unchanged at 1.1 per cent, as a moderation in non-cooked food inflation was offset by a pickup in food services inflation.
Services inflation eased slightly to 0.3 per cent from 0.4 per cent the preceding month, because of a smaller increase in health insurance costs and a larger decline in information and communication services prices.
MAS and MTI said that Singapore’s imported costs should continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace in the months ahead.
They projected global crude oil prices to fall more gradually in 2026 compared to 2025, with regional inflation picking up modestly after the weak outturns this year.
Meanwhile on the domestic front, administrative factors that were temporarily dampening inflation are expected to taper over the coming quarters, MAS and MTI said.
Unit labour cost growth should begin to increase as productivity growth normalises, while private consumption demand is likely to remain steady, they added.
Reflecting these factors, MAS and MTI said core inflation is projected to come in at around 0.5 per cent in 2025 before rising to 0.5 to 1.5 per cent in 2026.
CPI-All Items inflation is also expected to average 0.5 to 1 per cent in 2025 and 0.5 to 1.5 per cent in 2026.
MAS and MTI warned that the inflation outlook is subject to uncertainties, as supply shocks - including those stemming from geopolitical developments - could lift some imported costs abruptly.
“However, a sharper-than-expected weakening in global demand could keep core inflation lower for longer,” they said.
“Another significant decline in global oil prices could also temporarily tamp down the pace of price increases.”
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The rise was mainly driven by an increase in the prices of retail and other goods, said the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) and Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) in a joint statement.
The figure, which excludes private road transport and accommodation costs, was higher than the median forecast of 0.2 per cent in a Reuters poll of economists.
On a month-on-month basis, core prices grew by 0.3 per cent in September.
Overall inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index-All Items (CPI-All Items), picked up to 0.7 per cent year-on-year in September from 0.5 per cent in August, due to a larger increase in private transport prices, as well as rise in core inflation.
On a monthly basis, CPI-All Items inflation - which excludes non-consumption expenditures such as purchases of houses, shares and other financial assets and income taxes - grew by 0.4 per cent in September.
The Consumer Price Index is commonly used in Singapore as a measure of consumer price changes in the economy.
It tracks the change in prices of a fixed basket of consumption goods and services commonly purchased by the general resident households over time.
The CPI-All Items provides a comprehensive overview of the prices of consumer goods and services.
SECTORS
In September, private transport inflation rose to 3.7 per cent year-on-year from 2.4 per cent in August, due to a steeper increase in car prices, MAS and MTI said.
Retail and other goods inflation increased to 0.3 per cent from -0.2 per cent, on account of a rise in prices of furniture and appliances for personal care.
Electricity and gas inflation edged down to -5.8 per cent from -5.7 per cent the month before, owing to a sharper decline in electricity prices.
Accommodation inflation was unchanged at 0.4 per cent, as the pace of increase in housing rents remained the same as in the previous month.
Food inflation was also unchanged at 1.1 per cent, as a moderation in non-cooked food inflation was offset by a pickup in food services inflation.
Services inflation eased slightly to 0.3 per cent from 0.4 per cent the preceding month, because of a smaller increase in health insurance costs and a larger decline in information and communication services prices.
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OUTLOOK
MAS and MTI said that Singapore’s imported costs should continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace in the months ahead.
They projected global crude oil prices to fall more gradually in 2026 compared to 2025, with regional inflation picking up modestly after the weak outturns this year.
Meanwhile on the domestic front, administrative factors that were temporarily dampening inflation are expected to taper over the coming quarters, MAS and MTI said.
Unit labour cost growth should begin to increase as productivity growth normalises, while private consumption demand is likely to remain steady, they added.
Reflecting these factors, MAS and MTI said core inflation is projected to come in at around 0.5 per cent in 2025 before rising to 0.5 to 1.5 per cent in 2026.
CPI-All Items inflation is also expected to average 0.5 to 1 per cent in 2025 and 0.5 to 1.5 per cent in 2026.
MAS and MTI warned that the inflation outlook is subject to uncertainties, as supply shocks - including those stemming from geopolitical developments - could lift some imported costs abruptly.
“However, a sharper-than-expected weakening in global demand could keep core inflation lower for longer,” they said.
“Another significant decline in global oil prices could also temporarily tamp down the pace of price increases.”
Continue reading...