SINGAPORE: Singapore’s core inflation remained steady at 1.2 per cent year-on-year in November, official data showed on Tuesday (Dec 23).
The figure, unchanged from October, was due to higher services inflation being offset by lower retail and other goods inflation, as well as a steeper decline in the cost of electricity and gas, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) jointly said.
November's core inflation rate was lower than the median forecast of 1.3 per cent in a Reuters poll of economists.
On a month-on-month basis, core prices - which exclude accommodation and private transport - edged down 0.1 per cent in November.
Overall inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index-All Items (CPI-All Items), also stayed flat at 1.2 per cent in November, mainly due to accommodation and core inflation remaining unchanged.
On a monthly basis, overall inflation - which excludes non-consumption expenditures such as purchases of houses, shares and other financial assets and income taxes - rose by 0.2 per cent in November.
According to official data, services inflation edged up to 1.9 per cent in November from 1.8 per cent the month before.
This was due to larger increases in the costs of point-to-point (P2P) transport services and health insurance, said MAS and MTI.
Electricity and gas prices fell more sharply in November, on account of a larger decline in electricity costs.
Food inflation meanwhile remained unchanged at 1.2 per cent in November, as prices of food services and non-cooked food increased at the same pace in October.
Retail and other goods inflation dipped to 0.3 per cent in November from 0.4 per cent in October, as the prices of clothing and footwear, and other appliances for personal care declined.
Private transport inflation eased to 3.5 per cent in November from 3.8 per cent in October on the back of a smaller increase in car prices.
Accommodation inflation was unchanged at 0.3 per cent, as housing rents rose at a similar pace in October and November.
Maintaining their outlook from October, MAS and MTI said that Singapore’s imported costs should continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace, in the months ahead.
They projected global crude oil prices to fall more gradually in 2026 compared to 2025, while regional inflation should pick up modestly after their weak outturns this year.
“On the domestic front, administrative factors temporarily dampening inflation are expected to continue tapering over the coming quarters,” said MAS and MTI.
“Unit labour cost growth should begin to increase as productivity growth normalises, while private consumption demand is likely to remain steady.”
Reflecting these factors, MAS and MTI said core inflation is projected to come in at around 0.5 per cent in 2025 before rising to 0.5 to 1.5 per cent in 2026.
Overall inflation is meanwhile expected to average 0.5 to 1 per cent in 2025 and 0.5 to 1.5 per cent in 2026.
MAS and MTI warned that the inflation outlook is subject to uncertainties, as supply shocks, including those stemming from geopolitical developments, could lift some imported costs abruptly.
However, a sharper-than-expected weakening in global demand could keep core inflation lower for longer, they said.
Another significant decline in global oil prices could also temporarily tamp down the pace of price increases, MAS and MTI added.
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The figure, unchanged from October, was due to higher services inflation being offset by lower retail and other goods inflation, as well as a steeper decline in the cost of electricity and gas, the Ministry of Trade and Industry (MTI) and the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) jointly said.
November's core inflation rate was lower than the median forecast of 1.3 per cent in a Reuters poll of economists.
On a month-on-month basis, core prices - which exclude accommodation and private transport - edged down 0.1 per cent in November.
Overall inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index-All Items (CPI-All Items), also stayed flat at 1.2 per cent in November, mainly due to accommodation and core inflation remaining unchanged.
On a monthly basis, overall inflation - which excludes non-consumption expenditures such as purchases of houses, shares and other financial assets and income taxes - rose by 0.2 per cent in November.
SECTORS
According to official data, services inflation edged up to 1.9 per cent in November from 1.8 per cent the month before.
This was due to larger increases in the costs of point-to-point (P2P) transport services and health insurance, said MAS and MTI.
Electricity and gas prices fell more sharply in November, on account of a larger decline in electricity costs.
Food inflation meanwhile remained unchanged at 1.2 per cent in November, as prices of food services and non-cooked food increased at the same pace in October.
Retail and other goods inflation dipped to 0.3 per cent in November from 0.4 per cent in October, as the prices of clothing and footwear, and other appliances for personal care declined.
Private transport inflation eased to 3.5 per cent in November from 3.8 per cent in October on the back of a smaller increase in car prices.
Accommodation inflation was unchanged at 0.3 per cent, as housing rents rose at a similar pace in October and November.
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OUTLOOK
Maintaining their outlook from October, MAS and MTI said that Singapore’s imported costs should continue to decline, albeit at a slower pace, in the months ahead.
They projected global crude oil prices to fall more gradually in 2026 compared to 2025, while regional inflation should pick up modestly after their weak outturns this year.
“On the domestic front, administrative factors temporarily dampening inflation are expected to continue tapering over the coming quarters,” said MAS and MTI.
“Unit labour cost growth should begin to increase as productivity growth normalises, while private consumption demand is likely to remain steady.”
Reflecting these factors, MAS and MTI said core inflation is projected to come in at around 0.5 per cent in 2025 before rising to 0.5 to 1.5 per cent in 2026.
Overall inflation is meanwhile expected to average 0.5 to 1 per cent in 2025 and 0.5 to 1.5 per cent in 2026.
MAS and MTI warned that the inflation outlook is subject to uncertainties, as supply shocks, including those stemming from geopolitical developments, could lift some imported costs abruptly.
However, a sharper-than-expected weakening in global demand could keep core inflation lower for longer, they said.
Another significant decline in global oil prices could also temporarily tamp down the pace of price increases, MAS and MTI added.
Continue reading...