SINGAPORE: Housing demand in Singapore is expected to continue rising, driven by an ageing population, smaller households and changing demographic patterns and lifestyle preferences.
The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) and Housing and Development Board (HDB) said these trends were key considerations in the Draft Master Plan 2025 released last month, which outlines plans to build at least 80,000 public and private homes over the next 10 to 15 years.
More housing developments are needed in the long run to meet the growing demand and adapt to changing population needs, the two agencies said in response to CNA's queries.
Housing plans are driven by a variety of factors, they said. "These include meeting strong near-term demand, ensuring a steady supply to support a stable property market, as well as responding to evolving demographic trends and lifestyle preferences amongst the population.
"At the same time, we remain focused in ensuring that housing remains accessible in the long term for current and future generations," URA and HDB said.
"We also take into account a range of possible future scenarios, including socioeconomic developments and shifts in the global environment."
Social and lifestyle changes are already contributing to strong housing demand, and these patterns are likely to persist, the agencies said. For example, increasing life expectancy means homes are occupied for longer.
At the same time, more young couples and singles now want their own homes instead of staying with their extended families. This trend is reflected in Singapore's shrinking household sizes – from 3.96 in 1995 to 3.09 in 2024.
Demand is also being driven by "echo boomers" – those born in the late 1980s to 1990s – reaching the age of home ownership, URA and HDB said.
The agencies said the new housing plans “will be progressively implemented”, and that the government will continue monitoring the market closely to “calibrate housing supply accordingly”.
Experts interviewed by CNA agreed that housing demand remains elevated despite a falling birth rate, largely because of demographic and lifestyle changes.
One major trend, they said, is a “significant mindset shift” towards forming smaller or single-person households.
Another factor is overall population growth. As of June 2024, Singapore’s total population stood at 6.04 million – a 2 per cent rise from a year ago – mainly due to a 5 per cent increase in the non-resident population. This is the first time Singapore's population has crossed the 6-million mark.
This growth, even though largely driven by non-residents, has contributed to increased demand for private housing, both for purchase and rental, said Dr Woo Jun Jie, senior lecturer at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, who researches urban governance.
Looking ahead, experts believe Singapore's housing strategy must accommodate a potentially larger foreign workforce to counterbalance the country's falling birth rate and an ageing population.
“Although the government has not wanted to issue a population 'target' since the poorly received Population White Paper in 2013, it is clear that with declining fertility and an ageing population, the Singapore resident population will decline in the near future without immigration,” said Singapore University of Social Sciences Associate Professor of Economics Walter Theseira.
“The Singapore workforce will likewise decline without foreign employment inflows.”
It "seems clear" that the government would not be planning for a declining workforce. This means that when it comes to housing, the plan is to cater to both permanent and non-permanent immigration, Assoc Prof Theseira said.
The Population White Paper released in 2013 estimated that Singapore's population could reach between 6.5 million and 6.9 million by 2030. The projection sparked a public outcry and the government clarified that this was a planning parameter, not a forecast or target.
Since then, the government has said that it does not have a population target in mind. In a January 2023 parliamentary reply, the Ministry of National Development reiterated that “infrastructure planning in Singapore is not based on a population target”.
The latest master plan includes new neighbourhoods in areas such as Newton, Paterson, Dover-Medway along Dover Road, the former site of Singapore Racecourse in Kranji, as well as Paya Lebar Air Base and the Sembawang Shipyard area.
Experts said decisions on housing types in each area are guided by factors such as land value, allowable density and the availability of land.
For example, prime areas with high land prices like Newton and Paterson are slated for private housing, in line with development costs and demand for high-end residences, said professor of finance and real estate Qian Wenlan from the National University of Singapore’s business school.
In contrast, districts like Dover-Medway are “relatively more affordable”.
“With existing commercial and academic hubs nearby (in the Greater One-North area), a mix of public and private housing ensures a broader spectrum of residents, helping to form a diverse catchment area for these hubs,” she said.
Assoc Prof Theseira added that public housing projects in Singapore are typically large-scale developments with high density to justify investment in infrastructure like a town centre, polyclinic, hawker centre and public transport.
“Thus, we generally no longer develop standalone small blocks of public housing and we need a larger neighbourhood or area to develop. The land values must also be low enough that after subsidies, they are still affordable as public housing,” he said.
“The purely private development areas tend to have one or more factors that mean public housing development is infeasible.”
An artist’s impression of the future mixed-use development within Bishan town centre. (Image: Urban Redevelopment Authority)
Meanwhile, these new neighbourhoods will also have to fit into the government’s broader plans, such as a "decentralisation strategy" to create economic areas beyond the city centre and bring jobs closer to homes, said Professor Qian.
For example, Bishan town centre will be redeveloped into a business hub with 200,000 sq m of new office space. Plans also include a new hawker centre integrated with a revamped bus interchange, a polyclinic and a new mall.
Mixed-use developments that include homes, retail and dining have been proposed for neighbourhoods such as Newton and Paterson.
Prof Qian said these new towns are designed to maximise land-use efficiency, featuring high-rise living integrated with amenities.
While many of the new homes will be located in less densely populated areas, such as Kranji and Sembawang, neighbourhoods like Bishan may see slight increases in density with upcoming redevelopment and Build-to-Order projects.
Still, “higher density may not necessarily translate into more crowdedness”, said Dr Woo.
Ongoing efforts by the country’s urban planners to have more green and recreational spaces in housing estates, as well as a more sensitive design of urban spaces, will be key in helping to reduce feelings of crowdedness, he added.
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The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) and Housing and Development Board (HDB) said these trends were key considerations in the Draft Master Plan 2025 released last month, which outlines plans to build at least 80,000 public and private homes over the next 10 to 15 years.
More housing developments are needed in the long run to meet the growing demand and adapt to changing population needs, the two agencies said in response to CNA's queries.
Housing plans are driven by a variety of factors, they said. "These include meeting strong near-term demand, ensuring a steady supply to support a stable property market, as well as responding to evolving demographic trends and lifestyle preferences amongst the population.
"At the same time, we remain focused in ensuring that housing remains accessible in the long term for current and future generations," URA and HDB said.
"We also take into account a range of possible future scenarios, including socioeconomic developments and shifts in the global environment."
Social and lifestyle changes are already contributing to strong housing demand, and these patterns are likely to persist, the agencies said. For example, increasing life expectancy means homes are occupied for longer.
At the same time, more young couples and singles now want their own homes instead of staying with their extended families. This trend is reflected in Singapore's shrinking household sizes – from 3.96 in 1995 to 3.09 in 2024.
Demand is also being driven by "echo boomers" – those born in the late 1980s to 1990s – reaching the age of home ownership, URA and HDB said.
The agencies said the new housing plans “will be progressively implemented”, and that the government will continue monitoring the market closely to “calibrate housing supply accordingly”.
POPULATION GROWTH
Experts interviewed by CNA agreed that housing demand remains elevated despite a falling birth rate, largely because of demographic and lifestyle changes.
One major trend, they said, is a “significant mindset shift” towards forming smaller or single-person households.
Another factor is overall population growth. As of June 2024, Singapore’s total population stood at 6.04 million – a 2 per cent rise from a year ago – mainly due to a 5 per cent increase in the non-resident population. This is the first time Singapore's population has crossed the 6-million mark.
This growth, even though largely driven by non-residents, has contributed to increased demand for private housing, both for purchase and rental, said Dr Woo Jun Jie, senior lecturer at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, who researches urban governance.
Looking ahead, experts believe Singapore's housing strategy must accommodate a potentially larger foreign workforce to counterbalance the country's falling birth rate and an ageing population.
“Although the government has not wanted to issue a population 'target' since the poorly received Population White Paper in 2013, it is clear that with declining fertility and an ageing population, the Singapore resident population will decline in the near future without immigration,” said Singapore University of Social Sciences Associate Professor of Economics Walter Theseira.
“The Singapore workforce will likewise decline without foreign employment inflows.”
It "seems clear" that the government would not be planning for a declining workforce. This means that when it comes to housing, the plan is to cater to both permanent and non-permanent immigration, Assoc Prof Theseira said.
The Population White Paper released in 2013 estimated that Singapore's population could reach between 6.5 million and 6.9 million by 2030. The projection sparked a public outcry and the government clarified that this was a planning parameter, not a forecast or target.
Since then, the government has said that it does not have a population target in mind. In a January 2023 parliamentary reply, the Ministry of National Development reiterated that “infrastructure planning in Singapore is not based on a population target”.
Related:
WHERE THE NEW HOMES WILL BE
The latest master plan includes new neighbourhoods in areas such as Newton, Paterson, Dover-Medway along Dover Road, the former site of Singapore Racecourse in Kranji, as well as Paya Lebar Air Base and the Sembawang Shipyard area.
Experts said decisions on housing types in each area are guided by factors such as land value, allowable density and the availability of land.
For example, prime areas with high land prices like Newton and Paterson are slated for private housing, in line with development costs and demand for high-end residences, said professor of finance and real estate Qian Wenlan from the National University of Singapore’s business school.
In contrast, districts like Dover-Medway are “relatively more affordable”.
“With existing commercial and academic hubs nearby (in the Greater One-North area), a mix of public and private housing ensures a broader spectrum of residents, helping to form a diverse catchment area for these hubs,” she said.
Assoc Prof Theseira added that public housing projects in Singapore are typically large-scale developments with high density to justify investment in infrastructure like a town centre, polyclinic, hawker centre and public transport.
“Thus, we generally no longer develop standalone small blocks of public housing and we need a larger neighbourhood or area to develop. The land values must also be low enough that after subsidies, they are still affordable as public housing,” he said.
“The purely private development areas tend to have one or more factors that mean public housing development is infeasible.”
An artist’s impression of the future mixed-use development within Bishan town centre. (Image: Urban Redevelopment Authority)
Meanwhile, these new neighbourhoods will also have to fit into the government’s broader plans, such as a "decentralisation strategy" to create economic areas beyond the city centre and bring jobs closer to homes, said Professor Qian.
For example, Bishan town centre will be redeveloped into a business hub with 200,000 sq m of new office space. Plans also include a new hawker centre integrated with a revamped bus interchange, a polyclinic and a new mall.
Mixed-use developments that include homes, retail and dining have been proposed for neighbourhoods such as Newton and Paterson.
Prof Qian said these new towns are designed to maximise land-use efficiency, featuring high-rise living integrated with amenities.
While many of the new homes will be located in less densely populated areas, such as Kranji and Sembawang, neighbourhoods like Bishan may see slight increases in density with upcoming redevelopment and Build-to-Order projects.
Still, “higher density may not necessarily translate into more crowdedness”, said Dr Woo.
Ongoing efforts by the country’s urban planners to have more green and recreational spaces in housing estates, as well as a more sensitive design of urban spaces, will be key in helping to reduce feelings of crowdedness, he added.
Related:
Continue reading...